central currency Top Knowledge

2024-12-13 05:50:30

Many countries condemned Israel's control of the Syrian-Israeli military buffer zone in the Golan Heights, and Israeli troops invaded the Syrian-Israeli military buffer zone in the Golan Heights on the 8th. On the 9th, Israeli Defense Minister Katz ordered the Israeli army to fully control the buffer zone between Israel and Syria. The Israeli army's actions have been strongly condemned by Qatar, Iraq and other governments. On the 9th, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Qatar issued a statement strongly condemning the control of the Syrian post in the Golan Heights by the Israel Defense Forces. On the same day, the Iraqi Foreign Ministry issued a statement condemning Israel's control of the military buffer zone and the nearby land between it and Syria, and stressed that this act was a flagrant violation of international law and relevant resolutions of international legitimacy. In addition, the foreign ministries of Egypt and Jordan also issued statements on the same day, strongly condemning Israel's aggression, saying that it violated international law. The statement also called on the UN Security Council to take a firm stand against Israel's occupation.Debon Securities: Pay attention to the investment opportunities in the fields of liquor, beer and leisure snacks. Debon Securities Research Report pointed out that 1) Liquor: The dealer conference will set the tone for next year, giving priority to the opportunities of low-value leading layout. Recently, wine companies have intensively held dealer meetings to set the tone for next year's growth. At present, wine enterprises are generally rational and pragmatic, and reasonable speed reduction reduces the burden on channels. With a series of economic policies, the consumption of enterprises and residents is expected to pick up in 2025. The competitiveness of head enterprises has been further enhanced through continuous evolution, so it is suggested to grasp the investment opportunities with low expectations at present. 2) Beer: The overall performance of the third quarterly report is under pressure due to the weak recovery of demand and weather, but it is expected that the ton price of major beer enterprises will maintain a steady and rising trend throughout the year. With the introduction of a series of policies to stimulate consumption, terminal demand is expected to improve, and the recovery of ready-to-drink scenes such as catering is expected to promote the upgrading and continuation of beer structure. 3) Leisure snacks: The performance of leisure snack enterprises is further differentiated, and the performance of high-potential targets is optimistic in the peak season. In the third quarter, the performance of leisure and snack enterprises was divided, and the growth toughness of high-potential enterprises remained the same. The follow-up Spring Festival peak season is expected to bring the possibility of exceeding expectations. At present, the level of income profit rate of head enterprises is expected to remain stable.The yen fell to its lowest level against the US dollar since November 29th, at 151.55.


South Korea's Ministry of Finance: The recent market volatility is a bit excessive, and measures to stabilize the market will be taken to deal with it.Bruker sprinted for the IPO of Hong Kong stocks, Bruker Group Co., Ltd. updated its prospectus and tried to list on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for the second time. The co-sponsors are Goldman Sachs (Asia) Securities and Huatai Financial Holdings. According to Jost Sullivan's report, Bruker's market share in China's patchwork role toy market and China's patchwork toy market is 30.3% and 7.4% respectively. Bruker's toy products are mainly divided into two categories: "assembling role toys" and "building block toys", and the prices of mainstream products range from 19.9 yuan to 399 yuan. Most of Bruco's revenue comes from the sales of products based on Altman IP, accounting for 63.5% and 57.4% of its revenue in 2023 and the first half of 2024 respectively.Galaxy Securities: Pay attention to the investment opportunities in the fields of pig breeding and broiler breeding. The Galaxy Securities Research Report pointed out that: 1. Pig breeding: the loss of outsourcing piglet breeding has expanded. Based on the function value of fertile sows and MSY framework, the operation judgment of pig price in 2024 was basically verified. With regard to the trend of pig price in 2025, the annual average price runs relatively smoothly, and the difference lies in the continuous optimization of the total cost of excellent pig enterprises, which brings more than expected breeding profits. In addition, the impact point of the pig price in 2025 lies in the impact of the current winter climate change on the epidemic situation, which needs to be continuously tracked. It is suggested to pay attention to pig enterprises with leading/continuous improvement in cost control industry, relatively healthy funds and reasonable valuation. 2. Broiler breeding: 1) Yellow feather chicken: Many factors, such as low production capacity, may push up the price of yellow chicken, and the cost advantage of the head enterprise will be superimposed on the price to improve, and the profit elasticity has an advantage. It is recommended to pay attention to Lihua shares. 2) White feather chicken: In early December, avian influenza broke out in Oklahoma and New Zealand. New Zealand has announced that it will stop exporting poultry products; The introduction of Oklahoma, the only introduction state in the United States, is expected to be blocked. According to Boya Hexun, the domestic Anweijie poultry farm has received a notice of suspension of introduction; In other respects, the amount of seeds available in France and the reopening time of other States in the United States are still uncertain. If the production capacity of ancestral white chickens in China is reduced or the introduction is stopped due to the influence of overseas avian influenza, the industry boom cycle is expected to go up, and it is suggested to pay attention to the plate.


The yen fell to its lowest level against the US dollar since November 29th, at 151.55.CITIC Securities: In November, the PPI turned positive more than expected, and the core CPI continued to improve. According to the research report of CITIC Securities, the price data in November 2024 showed that the boosting effect on the economy after the policy shift in late September initially appeared at the "price end", mainly in two aspects: "PPI turned positive" and "continuous improvement of core CPI". In terms of PPI, this month's PPI turned positive more than expected, and the main contributions came from "the effect of trade-in for new products is gradually appearing at the price end of related industries" and "the acceleration of physical workload of infrastructure has boosted the prices of raw materials industries in the upper and middle reaches". It is embodied in the remarkable improvement of PPI in computer machine manufacturing, communication terminal equipment manufacturing, automobile manufacturing, durable consumer goods (means of subsistence), non-metallic mineral products industry and other industries. In terms of CPI, although the year-on-year growth rate of CPI further declined to 0.2%, which was significantly lower than the market expectation, it was largely affected by the over-seasonal decline in food prices. The core CPI, which the market paid more attention to, continued to improve slightly on the margin, with the year-on-year reading rising from 0.1% at the bottom of September to 0.2% in October and 0.3% in November. In terms of splitting, the CPI decline of the three major durable consumer goods and services has narrowed compared with the same period of last year. On the whole, the combination of "CPI 0.2%+PPI -2.5%" reveals that China is still facing significant "low inflation" pressure, and it is still necessary to continue to strengthen the price level with a package of incremental policies. Looking back, if the boosting effect of the "two new" policies on the demand of downstream industrial products and the driving effect of the accelerated issuance of special bonds on the physical workload of infrastructure can be released continuously, it will provide some support for the improvement of PPI; However, if you want to see the PPI continue to turn positive significantly, you may have to wait for the policy to further push the physical workload and real estate start-up data, as well as the more stringent supply-side optimization policies in some areas with more production capacity.Pacific Securities: The historical low of the valuation office of liquor industry is about to be repaired. The Pacific Securities Research Report pointed out that the liquor industry is rationally slowing down, and the valuation office is at a historical low, and it is about to be repaired. Next year, the leading growth target will generally drop to single digits. However, the accumulated inventory risk and pricing pressure still need time to gradually ease after the imbalance between supply and demand has intensified in the past two years and the previous industry bubble has receded. With the economic recovery stimulated by this round of policies and the stabilization of the bottom of the real estate industry, the liquor industry is expected to usher in a wave of recovery. Since 2023, industry differentiation has intensified, but with the improvement of management level and refined channel operation in recent years, excellent wine enterprises have stronger marketing foundation and anti-risk ability compared with previous downward cycles. The price of high-end wine determines the brand position, so the approval price is more important, which depends on the choice of quantity and price and the control of approval price by wine enterprises. Sub-high-end needs to pay more attention to channel risks. The high growth brought by pre-distribution investment needs to be tested in the downward period, and once the channel collapses and stalls, it is difficult to reverse it. Real estate wine pays attention to the growth momentum of internal product structure and the market potential in and around the province. The upgrading speed determines the slope and the ceiling determines the space. Suggested attention: Wuliangye, LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD, Shuijingfang, etc.

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